News
Title: Raila's third win
Date: 2007-11-01
Orange Democratic Movement's presidential candidate, Mr Raila Odinga maintained the 50 per cent endorsement as President Kibaki moved up by two points. The latest Steadman Group's fortnightly opinion poll shows Raila's third straight win, suffered a three per cent slide from his last. The poll came as the Electoral Commission announced December 27 is voting day. It also came as the political combatants stuck to their guns. Of the lost percentage points, Kibaki snatched two to stand at 39. But though still 20 percentage points behind ODM. Kibaki's Party of National Unity, which is still grappling with modes of nomination and membership, moved one point up to stand at 30 per cent. With the result of the latest poll the picture of a two-horse race between Raila and Kibaki began to solidify. Both again garnered at least 25 per cent in six provinces. The Constitution says a winning presidential candidate must get at least 25 per cent of votes cast in five of eight provinces, apart from claiming most of the votes cast. In the last three successive polls, Raila has recorded 47 per cent, 53 per cent and 50 per cent. Kibaki began with 38 per cent, before slipping to 37 per cent, then hoisting himself up to 39 per cent. Raila led in six provinces: Nairobi with 46 per cent, Coast (49), Nyanza (82), Rift Valley (65), Western (61) and North Eastern Province (77). Kibaki led the pack in two provinces Central (89 per cent) and Eastern (55). Majimbo unpopular "I deserve another term because I have done a lot. All sectors of the economy are performing. Kenyans should remember this and appreciate what my Government has done. You should not be swayed by empty rhetoric," said President Kibaki, who was campaigning in Narok. Raila, who was from South Africa, told a press conference: "We accept the results. That is the situation now, but we are confident that we will shoot up." Kalonzo's laughed off the latest polls, too: "I am happy Steadman Group is still sticking out its neck and portraying my candidature as one without a threat. During the launch of my campaign at Uhuru Park, the mammoth crowd was asking for Mr Steadman, to prove him wrong that I am no pushover." Though ODM lost two points to stand at 52 per cent, its campaign platform, variously called majimbo or devolution, suffered a blow with only 38 per cent of those polled saying it should be adopted. Forty-four per cent said it should not be adopted. Ten per cent did not know. The devolved form of government however garnered 50- plus per cent endorsement by those polled in Nyanza, Coast and Rift Valley. It proved least popular in Central (10 per cent), Eastern (11) and North Eastern (24). Kalonzo shared his rating with his party, to stand at eight per cent for the third time. Kibaki's popularity, according to poll conducted October 20-23, on the other hand, outpaces PNU by nine percentage points. Kalonzo's fortunes appear to have stuck where it were before his prophesy of a first miracle the outstanding show during his launch at Uhuru Park on October 14. The second was the large turn out at a rally in Mombasa, last week. Since September, support for Raila and Kibaki has continued to oscillate, more so on the provincial level but the former has remained consistent in his lead in six out of the eight provinces. Raila's provincial rating has been on the rise notably in North Eastern Province. In the September 28 poll, Raila's rating in North Eastern was at 70 per cent and it increased by two per cent in the October 12 polls. In the latest one the ODM candidate soared to 77 per cent. Kibaki's fortunes have continued to dwindle in the same province, going from 27 per cent in September, 25 per cent in October 12 and down to 20 per cent in the latest polls. Kibaki's popularity in Central Province has continued to rise from 79 per cent in September to the latest 89 per cent. Political pundits attribute Kibaki's dwindling support in North Eastern to the unresolved issue of the deportation of 19 people believed to be Muslims. Raila's support in Rift Valley, which was at 53 per cent in September then 86 per cent mid this month and now to 65 per cent, should concern ODM strategists. Although Raila still enjoys majority support in Rift Valley, questions are being raised majimbo could have created the slide. Most Kenyans interviewed during the latest polls carried between October 20-23 are skeptical about majimbo as has been drummed up by Raila's ODM party and Kalonzo's ODM-Kenya. Kalonzo's team, however, has a different approach, which it calls economic federalism. At least 53 per cent of those interviewed know what majimbo means and its benefits, while 22 percent felt it would create ethnic tension. Majimbo could also have contributed to the slip in Coast Province where Raila enjoys 49 per cent - nine per cent lower than in the last poll. President Kibaki ratings in Coast was 36 per cent in September then went down mid last month at 30 per cent and now its up again at 36 per cent. Western Province continues to be a favourable ground for Raila who enjoys 61 per cent of the support compared to Kibaki's 29 per cent. Raila and Kibaki's ratings have gone down in Western Province by between one and two per cent compared to the last polls. However, Raila had the support of 65 per cent voters while Kibaki had 25 per cent from the region, which in previous elections had been considered a swing vote. The battle for the 14.2 million votes continues to intensify as the margin between Raila and Kibaki shrinks. Raila is enjoying a 46 per cent lead in Nairobi compared to 51 per cent in September. Mid this month the former Langata MPs support was at 52 per cent while that of Kibaki stood at 35 per cent. Kibaki now has 43 per cent in Nairobi up from 35 per cent. The pollsters interviewed 2,718 respondents. Voter turn out crucial PNU's misfortunes could be as result of the unresolved issue of whether its affiliate parties should go for joint or individual nominations. Key parties in Kibaki's alliance have since announced they would field candidates independently, contradicting an earlier deal on joint nominations. Although ODM is yet to announce its nomination dates, the party continues to enjoy a majority support going by the list of 1,400 aspirants fighting for the partys parliamentary nomination tickets. The outcome in this year's elections would be determined by how Kenyans will turn out to vote. Statistics of the 2002 General Election shows that there was voter apathy. However, Central Province led in voter turn out owing to the fact that the two leading presidential candidates came from the province. President Kibaki contested the seat on a Narc ticket against Kanu's Uhuru Kenyatta. Rift Valley and Eastern Province tied at 61 per cent due to the support former President Moi gave Uhuru, and communities from Eastern backing Kibaki. The same voter turn out prevailed in areas where they were supporting their preferred candidate in 2002. Projections of the presidential vote distribution based on the 2002 voter turn out, shows that 46 per cent of voters could support Raila while Kibaki would receive 44 per cent.
Title: Raila's third win
Date: 2007-11-01
Orange Democratic Movement's presidential candidate, Mr Raila Odinga maintained the 50 per cent endorsement as President Kibaki moved up by two points. The latest Steadman Group's fortnightly opinion poll shows Raila's third straight win, suffered a three per cent slide from his last. The poll came as the Electoral Commission announced December 27 is voting day. It also came as the political combatants stuck to their guns. Of the lost percentage points, Kibaki snatched two to stand at 39. But though still 20 percentage points behind ODM. Kibaki's Party of National Unity, which is still grappling with modes of nomination and membership, moved one point up to stand at 30 per cent. With the result of the latest poll the picture of a two-horse race between Raila and Kibaki began to solidify. Both again garnered at least 25 per cent in six provinces. The Constitution says a winning presidential candidate must get at least 25 per cent of votes cast in five of eight provinces, apart from claiming most of the votes cast. In the last three successive polls, Raila has recorded 47 per cent, 53 per cent and 50 per cent. Kibaki began with 38 per cent, before slipping to 37 per cent, then hoisting himself up to 39 per cent. Raila led in six provinces: Nairobi with 46 per cent, Coast (49), Nyanza (82), Rift Valley (65), Western (61) and North Eastern Province (77). Kibaki led the pack in two provinces Central (89 per cent) and Eastern (55). Majimbo unpopular "I deserve another term because I have done a lot. All sectors of the economy are performing. Kenyans should remember this and appreciate what my Government has done. You should not be swayed by empty rhetoric," said President Kibaki, who was campaigning in Narok. Raila, who was from South Africa, told a press conference: "We accept the results. That is the situation now, but we are confident that we will shoot up." Kalonzo's laughed off the latest polls, too: "I am happy Steadman Group is still sticking out its neck and portraying my candidature as one without a threat. During the launch of my campaign at Uhuru Park, the mammoth crowd was asking for Mr Steadman, to prove him wrong that I am no pushover." Though ODM lost two points to stand at 52 per cent, its campaign platform, variously called majimbo or devolution, suffered a blow with only 38 per cent of those polled saying it should be adopted. Forty-four per cent said it should not be adopted. Ten per cent did not know. The devolved form of government however garnered 50- plus per cent endorsement by those polled in Nyanza, Coast and Rift Valley. It proved least popular in Central (10 per cent), Eastern (11) and North Eastern (24). Kalonzo shared his rating with his party, to stand at eight per cent for the third time. Kibaki's popularity, according to poll conducted October 20-23, on the other hand, outpaces PNU by nine percentage points. Kalonzo's fortunes appear to have stuck where it were before his prophesy of a first miracle the outstanding show during his launch at Uhuru Park on October 14. The second was the large turn out at a rally in Mombasa, last week. Since September, support for Raila and Kibaki has continued to oscillate, more so on the provincial level but the former has remained consistent in his lead in six out of the eight provinces. Raila's provincial rating has been on the rise notably in North Eastern Province. In the September 28 poll, Raila's rating in North Eastern was at 70 per cent and it increased by two per cent in the October 12 polls. In the latest one the ODM candidate soared to 77 per cent. Kibaki's fortunes have continued to dwindle in the same province, going from 27 per cent in September, 25 per cent in October 12 and down to 20 per cent in the latest polls. Kibaki's popularity in Central Province has continued to rise from 79 per cent in September to the latest 89 per cent. Political pundits attribute Kibaki's dwindling support in North Eastern to the unresolved issue of the deportation of 19 people believed to be Muslims. Raila's support in Rift Valley, which was at 53 per cent in September then 86 per cent mid this month and now to 65 per cent, should concern ODM strategists. Although Raila still enjoys majority support in Rift Valley, questions are being raised majimbo could have created the slide. Most Kenyans interviewed during the latest polls carried between October 20-23 are skeptical about majimbo as has been drummed up by Raila's ODM party and Kalonzo's ODM-Kenya. Kalonzo's team, however, has a different approach, which it calls economic federalism. At least 53 per cent of those interviewed know what majimbo means and its benefits, while 22 percent felt it would create ethnic tension. Majimbo could also have contributed to the slip in Coast Province where Raila enjoys 49 per cent - nine per cent lower than in the last poll. President Kibaki ratings in Coast was 36 per cent in September then went down mid last month at 30 per cent and now its up again at 36 per cent. Western Province continues to be a favourable ground for Raila who enjoys 61 per cent of the support compared to Kibaki's 29 per cent. Raila and Kibaki's ratings have gone down in Western Province by between one and two per cent compared to the last polls. However, Raila had the support of 65 per cent voters while Kibaki had 25 per cent from the region, which in previous elections had been considered a swing vote. The battle for the 14.2 million votes continues to intensify as the margin between Raila and Kibaki shrinks. Raila is enjoying a 46 per cent lead in Nairobi compared to 51 per cent in September. Mid this month the former Langata MPs support was at 52 per cent while that of Kibaki stood at 35 per cent. Kibaki now has 43 per cent in Nairobi up from 35 per cent. The pollsters interviewed 2,718 respondents. Voter turn out crucial PNU's misfortunes could be as result of the unresolved issue of whether its affiliate parties should go for joint or individual nominations. Key parties in Kibaki's alliance have since announced they would field candidates independently, contradicting an earlier deal on joint nominations. Although ODM is yet to announce its nomination dates, the party continues to enjoy a majority support going by the list of 1,400 aspirants fighting for the partys parliamentary nomination tickets. The outcome in this year's elections would be determined by how Kenyans will turn out to vote. Statistics of the 2002 General Election shows that there was voter apathy. However, Central Province led in voter turn out owing to the fact that the two leading presidential candidates came from the province. President Kibaki contested the seat on a Narc ticket against Kanu's Uhuru Kenyatta. Rift Valley and Eastern Province tied at 61 per cent due to the support former President Moi gave Uhuru, and communities from Eastern backing Kibaki. The same voter turn out prevailed in areas where they were supporting their preferred candidate in 2002. Projections of the presidential vote distribution based on the 2002 voter turn out, shows that 46 per cent of voters could support Raila while Kibaki would receive 44 per cent.
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